The Voice referendum betting odds: what they showed before the 2023 vote

What were the Voice referendum odds?

The latest dated pair identified in the available research was reported by Bets.com.au under the market wording “Will Australia Vote Yes To The Voice Referendum?” It listed BlueBet’s No price at $1.09 and its Yes price at $5.75, with the prices described as correct on 13 October 2023.

The shorter No price indicated that No was the favoured outcome in that snapshot. The source did not say what time the prices were observed, however, and it is a secondary report rather than an archived bookmaker feed. The figures should not be described as final or closing prices.

There is also a limit to what the market title tells us. It suggests an overall referendum outcome, but the original BlueBet rules were not located. Those rules would be needed to establish whether settlement depended on the national vote or on the constitutional proposal passing the double-majority test. A national Yes majority and constitutional passage are not necessarily the same event.

• Reported date: 13 October 2023.
• Bookmaker named in the report: BlueBet.
• Reported No price: $1.09.
• Reported Yes price: $5.75.
• Evidence limitation: observation time, original market rules and closing prices were not established.

How the reported prices changed during the campaign

Earlier reports provide some context for the Yes and No odds, although they do not form a complete price history. The Guardian reported that BlueBet opened its market in June 2023 with Yes at $1.70. It did not give an exact opening date or a corresponding No price, so that figure alone does not establish which outcome was shorter-priced at the time.

A BettingSite article dated 19 September reported BlueBet prices of No at $1.15 and Yes at $4.75. Its publication time does not establish when those prices were observed. By the 13 October snapshot reported by Bets.com.au, No was $1.09 and Yes was $5.75.

Taken together, the reports show changes in prices attributed to one bookmaker at selected points during the campaign. They do not establish every intervening movement, a closing price, or a trend across all Australian operators.

• June 2023: Yes reportedly opened at $1.70; no corresponding No price was provided.
• 19 September 2023: No was reported at $1.15 and Yes at $4.75.
• 13 October 2023: No was reported at $1.09 and Yes at $5.75.

How to read decimal odds

Decimal odds express the potential total return for each dollar staked on a winning outcome. That total includes the original stake. A shorter price produces a smaller potential return and, other things being equal, indicates an outcome priced as more likely than one with a longer price.

A raw implied probability can be calculated by dividing one by the decimal odds. For example, 1 divided by 2.50 is 0.40, or 40%. This is a number derived from the price, not automatically the true probability of the outcome.

The following is a hypothetical example, not a reported Voice referendum price:

• At decimal odds of $2.50, the raw implied probability is 40%.
• A winning $10 stake would return $25 in total, including the original $10.
• The profit on that winning example would be $15; a losing bet would lose the $10 stake.

What the reported prices imply

Applying the same calculation to the reported 13 October pair produces a raw implied probability of approximately 91.74% for No and 17.39% for Yes. These are calculations from the reported prices, not separately verified estimates from BlueBet.

The two figures add up to approximately 109.13%, rather than 100%. The excess is commonly called the overround and is associated with a bookmaker’s margin. Prices can also reflect betting activity and risk-management decisions, so the raw percentages should not be treated as precise statements of the true chances.

That interpretation is based on the reported pair. The missing original market rules remain important: without them, the precise event to which those prices applied has not been independently confirmed.

• No at $1.09: 1 ÷ 1.09 is approximately 91.74%.
• Yes at $5.75: 1 ÷ 5.75 is approximately 17.39%.
• Combined raw implied probabilities: approximately 109.13%.

What was the Voice referendum result?

The referendum asked one constitutional question: whether to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice. The proposed body could have made representations to Parliament and the Commonwealth executive government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.

The proposed constitutional alteration was not approved. According to the Australian Electoral Commission’s final result, 60.06% of formal votes nationally were No and 39.94% were Yes. These percentages refer to formal votes, not to all enrolled Australians.

The writ was returned on 6 November 2023, formally confirming the result. No won a majority in every state. The Australian Capital Territory recorded a Yes majority of 61.29%, but that did not change the national outcome.

• National No vote: 60.06% of formal votes.
• National Yes vote: 39.94% of formal votes.

Why the double-majority rule mattered

A constitutional referendum needs a double majority to pass: more than half of formal votes nationally must be Yes, and more than half of formal votes in at least four of the six states must be Yes.

Votes from the territories count towards the national total. However, territories are not states for the separate state-majority test. The ACT’s Yes majority therefore contributed to the national count but could not count as one of the four required state majorities.

The Voice proposal missed both tests: No won nationally and in all six states. The distinction is also relevant when reading the betting reports. A national vote majority and passage of the amendment are different possible market definitions, and the original BlueBet rules were not found.

• National test: a majority of formal votes had to be Yes. The result was a No majority.
• State test: at least four states needed Yes majorities. No state recorded one.

Did the betting odds predict the result?

In a directional sense, the reported pre-vote favourite matched the outcome: No was shorter-priced in the 13 October snapshot, and the referendum returned a No result. That does not prove that the price was numerically accurate or that the market’s implied probability was well calibrated. One event is not enough to test that.

In particular, the approximately 91.74% raw implied probability for No is not a prediction that 91.74% of voters would choose No. It is derived from a price for a market event. The AEC’s 60.06% is a share of formal votes. Comparing those numbers as if they measured the same thing would be misleading.

Referendum betting markets, opinion polls and official counts answer different questions. A poll estimates voting intentions among respondents using a particular sample and method; it does not directly state the probability that an outcome will win.

For example, YouGov’s final Voice poll surveyed 1,519 voters from 6 to 10 October 2023 and reported 56% intending to vote No, 38% Yes and 6% undecided. Those figures describe reported intentions before the 13 October price snapshot, not the final count or probabilities of victory.

Neither the odds nor the official result, by itself, establishes why people voted as they did. Nor does the fact that No was favoured show that a betting market caused the outcome.

• Odds: a price for a specified event, from which a raw implied probability can be calculated.
• Poll: an estimate of respondents’ voting intentions based on a sample and methodology.
• Official count: the AEC’s record of formal votes cast.

Can Australians still bet on the 2023 Voice referendum?

The 2023 referendum is a completed event, and its result has been formally confirmed. The historical prices above should not be read as odds for a forthcoming vote. A separate future referendum or political event would be a different event, with its own availability and market rules.

The available research did not locate the original BlueBet settlement rules or a settlement notice for this market. How a particular bet was handled depended on the applicable operator and market terms; the AEC result alone does not establish payment timing or mechanics.

FAQ

What were the final Yes and No odds?

Closing prices were not independently established. Bets.com.au reported BlueBet prices of No at $1.09 and Yes at $5.75 as correct on 13 October 2023, but did not specify when those prices were observed. They are best described as a dated pre-vote snapshot.

Did the betting odds predict the result?

The reported 13 October prices made No the shorter-priced outcome, and No won. That is a directional match, not proof that the implied probability was accurate. Assessing how well probabilities are calibrated requires more than the outcome of one event.

How did the odds differ from opinion polls?

The odds were prices for a specified market event. Opinion polls estimated voting intentions among respondents, using a sample and methodology. The AEC’s official result, by contrast, records the formal votes cast. A poll’s percentage intending to vote No is not the same as the probability of a No result.

What percentage voted No in the Voice referendum?

The AEC’s final national count was 60.06% No and 39.94% Yes. Those figures are shares of formal votes, rather than shares of everyone enrolled to vote.

Why did the ACT’s Yes vote not make the referendum pass?

The ACT’s votes counted in the national total, but the constitutional state-majority test required Yes majorities in at least four of the six states. All six states recorded No majorities, and No also won nationally.

How were Voice referendum bets settled?

Settlement depended on the relevant operator’s market rules. The original BlueBet rules and settlement notice were not located in the available research, so the official result alone cannot establish when or how a particular bet was paid.